Nigeria 2025 Economic Outlook: A Concise Summary

Global Economic Landscape:

• The global economy is showing resilience with a 3.2% growth rate in 2024, driven by the US and large developing economies in Asia.
• Rising public debt, geopolitical tensions, and potential health emergencies pose challenges.
• Global trade is expected to reach $32 trillion by the end of 2024, with a decrease in global inflation.
• Key risks include rising public debt, ongoing conflicts, and potential disruptions to trade flows.

Nigerian Economic Overview:

• Nigeria's economy grew at a modest 3.09% in 2024, driven by the service sector.
• The agricultural sector and industry experienced slower growth due to various challenges.
• Inflation has been on the rise, triggered by domestic policy changes, global energy shocks, and supply-driven factors.
• Unemployment remains a concern, with official figures potentially underestimating the true extent of the problem.

Key Sectoral Highlights:

• The oil and gas industry is undergoing a transformation, with indigenous companies taking on a more prominent role.
• The telecom sector has experienced a decline in foreign investment, but challenges persist.
• The financial system is grappling with a cash scarcity paradox, despite an increase in currency in circulation.
• Fuel prices continue to rise, despite the commissioning of new refineries.
• The NGX ASI achieved a 37.65% gain in 2024, demonstrating resilience amidst market volatility.

2025 Outlook and Policy Implications:

• The 2025 budget projects revenue of N34.8 trillion and expenditure of N47.9 trillion, with a focus on non-oil revenue and capital expenditure.
• Tax reforms aim to simplify the tax system and streamline tax collection.
• The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could have significant implications for Nigeria's economy, particularly in trade, investment, and exchange rates.

Key Takeaways:

• The global and Nigerian economies present both opportunities and challenges.
• Inflation, unemployment, and debt remain key concerns.
• Sectoral performance is mixed, with some sectors showing resilience and others facing headwinds.
• The 2025 budget and tax reforms signal policy direction, but their success hinges on addressing underlying challenges.
• The impact of US policies under Trump's presidency needs careful monitoring and mitigation strategies.

• This summary provides a high-level overview of the key economic trends and policy developments. It is important to consult the full report for a more in-depth understanding of the issues and their potential impact on business decisions.